First Crypto Bull Market Since 2020 May Have Begun: Key Resistance and Pullback Risks Explained

Since 2020, the crypto market has shown the first signs of an economic expansion cycle beginning. Bitcoin is hitting a key resistance on the weekly chart, but the larger macro backdrop may indicate a new bull market is just starting. Market analysis suggests the recent rally is not a true bull market but rather a rebound driven by policy and ETF expectations; a genuine bull market may come only with the economic expansion cycle.

Core View: Crypto Bull Market May Just Be Beginning

Over the past period, Bitcoin's rise has been interpreted by some as an early start to a bull market. However, from the perspective of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, a true economic expansion bull market has not yet occurred. Historically, this ratio has been highly synchronized with economic cycle expansions/contractions. The market was previously in a contraction phase, and only now are signs of a shift emerging. The manufacturing PMI rebounding above 55 and the copper-to-gold ratio bottoming and turning up are macro signals that align with the environment typical of past bull market launches.

Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio Reveals Cycle Inflection Point

The Bitcoin/gold ratio is an important tool for observing the business cycle. During previous economic expansion periods, Bitcoin typically made strong new all-time highs against gold, while it performed flat during contraction periods. Currently the ratio has not yet broken out, suggesting the true economic expansion bull market may just be getting started. If the cycle continues, the BTC/gold ratio is likely to enter a strong upward phase similar to previous ones.

Bitcoin Weekly Resistance: 50-Week Moving Average Becomes Bull-Bear Line

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is facing significant resistance from the 50-week moving average. Historically, a rally began near this moving average in February 2023. Currently, if it can break through the $80,000 resistance, Bitcoin will move above all major weekly moving averages, opening the door to testing the $85,000–$90,000 range. The $80,000 level is the most important short-term observation point.

Short-term Pullback Risk: Watch the $70,000 Support

Despite a positive long-term outlook, short-term pullback risks should not be ignored. On the daily chart, Bitcoin often retests after breaking above the 200-day moving average. The 20-week moving average on the weekly chart is currently around $70,000, serving as the first key support. If this level is lost, prices could decline further, but such pullbacks are normal fluctuations in the early stages of a macro bull market and do not change the trend judgment.

Ethereum and Altcoins: Similar Structure, Higher Volatility

Ethereum similarly faces resistance from the 50-week and 200-week moving averages on the weekly chart, with pullback pressure. Support levels are concentrated near $2,100, $2,000, and $1,900. ETH/BTC has broken above a long-term downtrend and may enter a period of sideways consolidation, building energy for a subsequent altcoin rally.

For altcoins, Solana is in a low-risk accumulation zone, with a structure similar to before the 2023 bull market launch; Cardano's key overhead resistance is at $0.34–$0.47; SUI may replicate the high volatility characteristic of historical bottoms. Overall, altcoin volatility will be significantly higher than Bitcoin, so risk management is needed.

Conclusion: Market Shifts to Economic Expansion, Look for Opportunities in Pullbacks

The crypto market is currently at a key weekly resistance level, with both short-term downside risk and long-term upside opportunity. Macro indicators show the business cycle is shifting from contraction to expansion. If this trend continues, crypto assets, as the last major asset class to start, may see strong performance. Market participants should be prepared for high volatility, watch key support and resistance levels, and avoid misjudging the long-term trend due to short-term fluctuations.