Bitcoin Tests Weekly Flip Level: Market Structure for BTC, ETH, and SOL

The crypto market has shown a clear turn recently: after nearly a year of correction, Bitcoin is approaching a key weekly flip level, while Ethereum and Solana have already entered new uptrends one after another. This article reviews where the three major assets stand from two dimensions: technical structure and macro liquidity.

A note before we begin: the following is analysis based on price structure and public information and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, and any scenario projection can fail. Please manage your own risk.

Bitcoin: The Weekly Flip Level Is the Key Threshold Right Now

Bitcoin is currently testing its weekly flip level, with price already close to that level. The technical confirmation condition is a weekly close above the flip level; an intraday touch does not count.

On a longer timeframe, price previously oscillated repeatedly around the 200-week moving average, an area that has been validated time and again as an important bottom reference zone. If the weekly flip is confirmed, it means the market structure has shifted from correction to bullish, and an upward trend is more likely to continue; if price is rejected at this level, the correction may still extend.

From a statistical probability standpoint, trend continuation is more likely, but not guaranteed—any single move can evolve in the opposite direction, which is exactly why stop losses are necessary.

The strength of this rally is worth noting: it is the strongest weekly advance since March 2023, and measured in absolute dollar terms, it ranks among the larger weekly candles in history. Such strength tends to fuel FOMO, but the safer approach is to wait for weekly close confirmation before acting, rather than betting heavily ahead of confirmation.

Ethereum: A Clean Range Breakout Is the Real Bullish Signal

Ethereum has also entered a new uptrend. There is a clear trading range above the current price, and the top of that range forms the first resistance.

For Ethereum, the strongest bullish signal is not a short-term price spike but a valid breakout above this trading range. Once a breakout occurs, price often accelerates within a short period, and volatility can expand significantly.

To be objective: Ethereum's performance in the previous cycle was relatively weak, with its all-time high only marginally exceeded and overall gains limited. The current trend shift is therefore more of a structural improvement than compensation for past underperformance. Whether the range breakout holds still needs to be verified by actual closing prices.

Solana: New Uptrend Confirmed, Watch the Prior High Zone

Solana has confirmed entry into a new uptrend. From the current position back to the prior high zone, the theoretical upside is about 140%; measured against longer-term highs, the upside is about 200%.

These figures are upside estimates under a trend-continuation scenario, not price promises. The core of trend trading is following structural change: participate with the trend when it is up, exit promptly when the structure breaks, rather than fixating on a specific price level.

Macro Backdrop: Changes in the Treasury Bond Market Are a Key Variable

A key macro variable behind this rally comes from the US treasury bond market. The US Treasury Secretary recently said roughly $1 trillion in reserve funds could be used to buy back treasury bonds. This is the first time since World War II that the US Treasury has purchased its own bonds on such a scale.

Essentially, this operation means the government is actively creating demand to push down yields at a time when demand for bonds is insufficient and long-end rates are elevated. Unlike traditional quantitative easing, this is not direct money printing by the Federal Reserve but the Treasury deploying funds on its books—a difference in form.

But looking at the end result, if fiscal funds run out, monetary expansion will still be hard to avoid. The market therefore widely interprets this as a variant of debt monetization, which is why gold and crypto assets are both viewed as "debasement trade" vehicles.

There is also opposition. Some veteran market participants argue that long-end treasury bond yields are the world's most important price signal, and the government should not distort that signal through buybacks but should treat it as information from the market and adjust policy accordingly. Such debates will not be resolved anytime soon, but for investors, what matters is understanding the liquidity implications behind them.

Asset Allocation View: Trend First, Avoid Overconcentration

In the current environment, crypto assets show stronger trending behavior than most asset classes. At the same time, some previously strong tech stocks have shifted into downtrend structures, and trend reversals have become clearly harder.

Gold has also recently shown a weekly-level strengthening signal, sharing the same "debasement trade" logic as crypto assets. But in terms of elasticity, crypto assets usually offer larger moves.

For traders, a few points are worth noting:

• Do not fixate on a single asset. There are many tradable assets in the market, and missing one entry point does not mean missing all opportunities.
• Follow systematic rules. Entering based on confirmed trends is more sustainable than predicting specific price levels.
• Control position size and stop losses. Trend judgments are probabilistic, and any single wrong call should be capped within a tolerable range.

Risk Disclosure

Crypto asset prices are highly volatile. The flip level, range top, prior high zone, and other levels mentioned in this article are reference points in technical analysis and do not mean prices will necessarily reach or break through them. Macro policy changes, reversals in the liquidity environment, regulatory adjustments, and other factors may invalidate the existing structure. Please make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance and manage your positions well.