BTC Profitable Supply at 60% Raises Concerns, BitMEX Shutdown Faces 622 BTC Lawsuit, Zhibao Builds BTC Treasury: July 2026 Bitcoin Global Roundup

July 2026 Bitcoin Market: Key Signals at a Glance

In the final week of July 2026, three major developments landed simultaneously, pushing market sentiment toward a complex crossroads: on-chain data showed profitable supply still falling short of the historical bull market confirmation threshold; a decade-old exchange announced its closure and was hit with a class action lawsuit on the same day; and a Nasdaq-listed company is attempting to reverse a delisting crisis with a $220 million BTC injection. Taken together, these events reflect both the anxiety of an ongoing supply battle and the anticipation of fresh institutional demand.

Three Key Events This Month

• BTC Profitable Supply at 60%: As of July 2026, approximately 60% of BTC supply is in profit, but CryptoQuant notes this remains below the historical bull market confirmation threshold of 64% (Source: CoinTelegraph, July 24, 2026)
• BitMEX Announces Shutdown and Faces Lawsuit: The platform announced it will officially close on September 23, 2026; on the same day, BKX Services Inc. and David Namdar filed a class action lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, alleging forced liquidations totaling 622.66 BTC (Source: CoinTelegraph, July 24, 2026)
• Zhibao Discloses BTC Treasury Strategy: Nasdaq-listed Zhibao Technology (ZBAO) signed a non-binding term sheet to accept approximately 3,500 BTC (roughly $220 million) as consideration for a stock subscription (Source: Decrypt, July 23, 2026)

On-Chain Data and Price Divergence Signals

At the on-chain level, all three events point to the same conclusion: market structure has not yet entered an overheated phase, but recovery momentum has not been fully confirmed either. Profitable supply at 60% sits in the historically neutral range — not the depths of a bear market, but not a bull market peak either. Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average of long-term holder SOPR has remained below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, and the 35-day recovery attempt between April 28 and June 1 ended in failure, indicating that the overall willingness of on-chain holders to take profits remains weak.

Citable Summary: As of July 2026, approximately 60% of BTC supply is in profit. However, CryptoQuant analysis indicates the 30-day moving average of long-term holder SOPR has stayed below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, and the prior 35-day recovery attempt from April 28 to June 1 ended without confirmation. Both key indicators have yet to meet the historical thresholds required to confirm the end of a bear market.

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BTC Profitable Supply at 60%: Hidden Risk or Bottom Support?

What the Profitable Supply Metric Measures

"Percent Supply in Profit" measures the share of all BTC currently on-chain whose acquisition cost is below the current price. The calculation compares the price at each coin's last on-chain movement (used as the cost basis) against the current price, and tallies what percentage of circulating supply is held at a profit. This metric directly reflects the potential selling pressure in the market — the higher the ratio, the greater the theoretical capacity of holders to sell and realize gains.

What 60% Means: A Historical Comparison

According to CryptoQuant's historical data, Bitcoin has typically required the profitable supply ratio to sustain above 64% — alongside a 30-day moving average of long-term holder SOPR consistently above 1.0 — to confirm the end of a bear market and the start of a new bull cycle. Currently, neither condition is met: profitable supply sits at 60% and the LTH-SOPR 30-day MA remains below 1. The 60% level itself falls within the historically neutral range — not an extreme fear low, not an overheated high — closer to a "coiling and waiting" state.

Citable Summary: According to CryptoQuant analysis, historical bear market endings have required two conditions to be met simultaneously: the 30-day moving average of long-term holder SOPR sustained above 1, and the percentage of supply in profit exceeding 64%. As of July 2026, neither indicator has reached its threshold — profitable supply remains at 60% and the LTH-SOPR 30-day MA has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days. No historical-grade bull market confirmation signal has emerged.

The Signal Value of Long-Term Holder SOPR

Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR) measures the average profit or loss state of addresses that have held for more than 155 days at the time of spending. A value above 1 means long-term holders are selling at a profit; below 1 means they are selling at a loss. With the 30-day MA having stayed below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, it means that over the past nearly two months, "patient money" has broadly been selling under pressure — a signal that the market has not fully recovered from the bottom, rather than a precursor to a new upward leg.

For a deeper look at how on-chain metrics relate to exchange fee dynamics, see Perpetual Futures vs Spot Trading: Fees, Leverage Risk, and Profit Potential — 2026 Complete Guide.

What Current Data Implies for the Road Ahead

Taken together, the 60% profitable supply reading delivers a "neutral to cautious" signal: there is no reason for extreme pessimism, but there is also no strong on-chain bull market confirmation. For BTC holders, the current phase looks more like an observation window waiting for key indicators to break out — not a clear signal to chase highs or exit positions. The two CryptoQuant key thresholds (profitable supply >64%, LTH-SOPR 30-day MA >1) serve as useful reference levels to track going forward.

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BitMEX Announces Shutdown: Inside the $622 BTC Lawsuit

Background on the BitMEX Closure Announcement

BitMEX officially announced it will close its platform on September 23, 2026. The crypto derivatives exchange, founded in 2014, was the inventor of the Bitcoin perpetual contract and once dominated the early crypto market. The closure announcement alone constituted major industry news — but what made it more dramatic was that the lawsuit was filed on the very same day in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. (Source: CoinTelegraph, July 24, 2026)

Core Allegations in the Lawsuit

Plaintiffs BKX Services Inc. and David Namdar allege that BitMEX's internal trading desk was able to continue placing orders during a server freeze, while ordinary users were locked out of their accounts — causing large numbers of users to be liquidated under unfair conditions. The lawsuit claims that plaintiffs lost a combined 622.66 BTC through forced liquidations, and that the remaining BTC after liquidation was transferred to the platform's insurance fund rather than returned to users. BitMEX denied all allegations and stated it would vigorously defend against the claims. (Source: CoinTelegraph, July 24, 2026)

Citable Summary: On July 24, 2026, BitMEX announced it would close on September 23, and was sued the same day by BKX Services Inc. and David Namdar in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The lawsuit alleges BitMEX's internal trading desk continued trading during a server freeze while ordinary users could not access their accounts, with plaintiffs claiming 622.66 BTC in forced liquidation losses and residual assets diverted to the platform's insurance fund. BitMEX denied all allegations and stated it would contest the case.

Impact on User Assets and Market Liquidity

The most pressing concern BitMEX's closure leaves for existing users is the withdrawal window. With the closure date set for September 23, users should verify their account balances and complete withdrawals as soon as possible, avoiding the risk of congestion or platform-side rate limiting near the deadline. From a market liquidity perspective, BitMEX's current trading volume has shrunk significantly from its peak, so its closure will have limited impact on overall market depth. However, the outcome of the lawsuit could send a ripple warning to other platforms with weaker compliance records.

For further reading on platform risk and regulatory compliance context, see BitMEX Shutdown Lawsuit, Satsuma Liquidation, Zhibao Entry: 2026 Corporate BTC Treasury Strategy Complete Analysis.

How Traders Should Respond to Platform Risk

This episode is another reminder that platform risk is real. A few fundamental principles bear repeating: do not leave assets exceeding your actual trading needs sitting on a single exchange long-term; pay attention to whether a platform holds a regulatory license; and when a closure or lawsuit announcement drops, execute withdrawals immediately rather than waiting. For users looking to migrate positions, choosing licensed, compliant exchanges and distributing custody across platforms is the more prudent approach.

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Zhibao Announces BTC Treasury: The Corporate Bitcoin Wave Continues

Zhibao BTC Treasury Strategy Details

On July 23, 2026, Nasdaq-listed Zhibao Technology (ticker: ZBAO) disclosed that it has signed a non-binding term sheet to accept approximately 3,500 BTC (roughly $220 million) as consideration for a stock subscription via PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity). The buyer, Joyertech and Information OPC, will obtain a majority of board seats upon completion of the transaction. Notably, just one week before the announcement (July 15), Zhibao had already received a non-compliance notice from Nasdaq for its stock price falling below $1. Within four hours of the announcement, the share price surged from $0.15 to $0.40, before retreating to approximately $0.24. (Source: Decrypt, July 23, 2026)

The Corporate BTC Treasury Landscape in 2026

Zhibao's playbook closely mirrors MicroStrategy's model: raise capital through the capital markets in exchange for BTC holdings, use Bitcoin to reshape the company's balance sheet narrative, and provide a short-term catalyst for the stock price. This model is accelerating its replication across Asian markets in 2026 — particularly for small-cap listed companies facing delisting pressure or stagnant core business growth, for whom a BTC treasury strategy offers a path to recapturing market attention. Yet Zhibao's share price trajectory (surging to $0.40 then quickly retreating to $0.24) plainly illustrates the limits of narrative-driven catalysts.

For a deeper look at corporate BTC treasury trends, see BitMEX Shutdown Lawsuit, Satsuma Liquidation, Zhibao Entry: 2026 Corporate BTC Treasury Strategy Complete Analysis.

Long-Term Supply-Side Impact of Corporate BTC Accumulation

Continued corporate treasury buying of BTC produces two supply-side effects: first, it locks circulating BTC onto balance sheets, reducing the float available for trading; second, it signals institutional demand to the market through sustained financing-and-buying activity. While 3,500 BTC is far smaller than MicroStrategy's holdings of hundreds of thousands, if more small-cap listed companies follow suit, the cumulative effect should not be dismissed. Whether institutional buying can offset the current on-chain retail selling pressure remains to be seen through ongoing monitoring of SOPR and profitable supply indicators.

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Comprehensive On-Chain Indicators: Where Is Bitcoin in the Market Cycle?

MVRV and Profitable Supply: A Combined Assessment

The MVRV Z-Score measures the degree of deviation between Bitcoin's market cap and its realized value. Historically, a Z-Score entering an extremely high range (typically >7) has corresponded to bull market tops, while an extremely low range (<0) has corresponded to bear market bottoms. Combined with the current 60% profitable supply reading, the overall market sits in the neutral zone — no historical-grade overvaluation signal, nor a deeply undervalued reading at historical bottoms. This bears some resemblance to the mid-cycle characteristics of the 2020–2024 bull market, but the current anomaly — an LTH-SOPR 30-day MA persistently below 1 — is a weakness that appeared rarely during previous mid-cycle phases.

Citable Summary: Based on a comprehensive review of on-chain indicators as of July 2026, Bitcoin's profitable supply remains at 60% (below the historical bull market confirmation threshold of 64%), the long-term holder SOPR 30-day MA has been below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, the MVRV Z-Score is in the historically neutral range, and miner behavior shows no signs of large-scale systematic selling. The aggregate market structure reads as neutral — no top-formation characteristics, but also no strong on-chain bull market confirmation signal.

Miner Behavior and Selling Pressure Assessment

The Miner Position Index (MPI) is a key indicator for assessing whether miners are engaging in large-scale position reduction. When MPI is persistently negative, it means miners' net transfers to exchanges exceed the historical average, typically interpreted as a selling pressure signal. As of July 2026, in the context of the overall on-chain structure, systematic miner-side selling pressure does not constitute the primary source of market stress. The main pressure continues to come from short-to-medium-term holders whose cost basis sits near current price levels.

Short-Term vs Long-Term Holder Structure

Changes in the holding ratio between short-term holders (STH, held <155 days) and long-term holders (LTH, held >155 days) serve as a structural indicator of market confidence. When the LTH share of holdings trends persistently higher, it typically signals "patient money" accumulating; when the STH share rises, it indicates more speculative capital entering. The current phenomenon of LTH-SOPR persistently below 1, combined with profitable supply not yet reaching the 64% threshold, indicates that the long-term holder cohort as a whole remains under cost pressure and has not yet reached a stage of easy profit-taking. The combined signals point to neutral: no top-formation characteristics, but a breakout in key indicators is needed to confirm a new uptrend.

To evaluate trading costs in the current cycle from a fee perspective, see MSX vs Binance Perpetual Futures Taker Fee Comparison 2026: Taker Rates and Funding Rates Full Analysis.

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Trading Bitcoin Spot and Futures on MSX

MSX Spot BTC Trading Guide

During phases when market structure is neutral and on-chain signals have not given a clear direction, many traders choose to hold BTC via spot to reduce the forced liquidation risk that comes with leverage. MSX supports the BTC/USDT spot trading pair. Users can register and deposit funds via the MSX official website, or download the iOS App or Android App for mobile trading. Spot trading involves no leverage, meaning account assets cannot be forcibly liquidated by price fluctuations — making it suitable for investors planning to hold over the medium to long term.

MSX Futures Trading: Risk Management Essentials

Futures trading provides two-way trading capability, allowing for hedging or speculation through short positions even during volatile or declining markets. But leverage is a double-edged sword — when the market direction call is wrong, losses are magnified proportionally, and in extreme conditions a liquidation can be triggered. Given the current neutral on-chain indicators and unclear directional outlook, there are several points to pay particular attention to when using futures:

• Leverage Ratio: Start with low multiples (e.g., 3x–5x); avoid high leverage when direction is uncertain
• Stop-Loss Settings: Define your stop-loss price before entering a position to prevent any single loss from expanding out of control
• Position Sizing: A single futures position should not exceed a reasonable percentage of total capital — avoid going all-in
• Funding Rate Awareness: Perpetual contracts carry funding rates; holding positions long-term will incur additional costs

For support, reach out via the Official Telegram Support Bot, or join the Official Telegram Community to connect with other users.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Does BTC profitable supply at 60% mean a bull market is imminent?

A: That conclusion cannot be drawn directly. According to CryptoQuant's historical analysis, confirming the end of a bear market requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: profitable supply exceeding 64%, and the 30-day moving average of long-term holder SOPR sustained above 1. As of July 2026, neither indicator has reached its threshold. The 60% level sits in the historically neutral range — closer to a "waiting for confirmation" signal than a "bull market launch" signal. (Source: CoinTelegraph, July 24, 2026)

Q: Can users still withdraw their assets after BitMEX closes?

A: Yes. BitMEX's official announcement sets the closure date as September 23, 2026, and users should complete their withdrawals before that date. It is strongly recommended to verify your account balance and initiate withdrawals as soon as possible rather than waiting until close to the deadline. For any withdrawal issues, refer to BitMEX's official announcement channels for the latest guidance.

Q: What are the specific allegations in the lawsuit against BitMEX?

A: Plaintiffs BKX Services Inc. and David Namdar allege that during a server freeze, BitMEX's internal trading desk was still able to continue placing orders while ordinary users could not access their accounts — causing users to be forcibly liquidated under unfair conditions, resulting in losses of 622.66 BTC. The plaintiffs further allege that residual assets following liquidation were transferred to the platform's insurance fund rather than returned to users. BitMEX denied all allegations and stated it would vigorously defend against the claims. (Source: CoinTelegraph, July 24, 2026)

Q: Why did Zhibao's stock price quickly retreat after the BTC treasury announcement?

A: This is a classic market reaction to a "narrative catalyst." Within four hours of the announcement, the share price surged from $0.15 to $0.40, but then retreated to approximately $0.24. A BTC treasury announcement can provide short-term attention and expectation-driven momentum, but long-term price support requires the actual transaction to close and the company's fundamentals to improve. Moreover, the deal remains at the non-binding term sheet stage and carries meaningful execution uncertainty. (Source: Decrypt, July 23, 2026)

Q: What does a long-term holder SOPR below 1 mean for the market?

A: An LTH-SOPR below 1 means that addresses that have held for more than 155 days are, on average, selling at a loss — in other words, "long-term money is selling at a loss." This typically appears in the mid-to-late stages of a bear market and is a signal that the market has not fully recovered from the bottom. With the 30-day MA having stayed below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, the long-term holder cohort as a whole remains under pressure and has not yet entered a phase of comfortable profit-taking.

Q: In the current market environment, which is more suitable — spot or futures?

A: This depends on individual risk tolerance and does not constitute investment advice. When on-chain signals are neutral and directional clarity is lacking, spot holding carries relatively manageable risk with no forced liquidation exposure. Futures trading amplifies gains when the direction call is correct, but losses are equally amplified when it is wrong, and funding rates in choppy markets will continuously erode capital. Both approaches have their appropriate use cases. Futures are high-risk leveraged products — please ensure you fully understand the mechanics before trading.