Has the Crypto Market Entered a Bull Market? Multi-Dimensional Signals and Key Indicators Analysis

The cryptocurrency market has recently shown a strong upward trend, with Bitcoin briefly touching $80,000 and multiple major coins recording significant weekly gains. Market sentiment is gradually shifting from bearish skepticism to cautious optimism, but confirming a bull market still requires observing the performance of key support levels. This article will examine bullish and bearish signals across technical indicators, on-chain data, macro liquidity, and institutional activity.

Technical Indicators: Bulls in Control, but Short-Term Overbought

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has reclaimed the 200-day moving average, a key watershed for bull and bear regimes. Historically, when price trades above the 200-day MA, the market tends to be in a bullish structure; conversely, it leans bearish. Currently, not only Bitcoin but most major coins and the total crypto market cap are also above this moving average.

The MACD indicator shows bulls still in control, but the green histogram bars are shrinking, suggesting slowing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the daily RSI has broken above 80, entering overbought territory, so short-term pullback risk cannot be ignored.

On the weekly timeframe, the previously tracked bullish divergence is playing out: the MACD bull signal is clear, and the RSI has broken above its long-term descending trendline—an important positive signal. On the monthly chart, RSI is rebounding from historical bottom territory, and MACD bearish momentum continues to fade, resembling patterns seen at the end of past bear markets.

Market Performance: Major Coins Broadly Higher

Over the past week, crypto market liquidity has rebounded significantly. Ethereum rose over 31%, XRP surged more than 50%, Solana gained over 33%, and Zcash posted a weekly gain of over 62%. The overall market shows a broad-based rally with clear capital inflows.

Notably, Bitcoin has once again surpassed Nvidia as the best-performing asset over the past decade. AI-related stocks had previously led, but recent flows show signs of rotation from AI into crypto assets and gold.

On-Chain Data and Institutional Activity

On-chain data also sends positive signals. Analysts note that the weekly RSI of the total crypto market cap has broken above its descending trendline, corroborating Bitcoin's move and further supporting the view that "the bottom is in."

Institutional buying is also increasing. Digital asset treasury company Strive purchased 1,110 BTC worth approximately $81.5 million; Tom Lee's BitMine bought $81 million worth of Ethereum in one week, marking its largest weekly purchase since July. These purchases indicate that this rally is not driven solely by retail sentiment.

Macro Liquidity: Potential Tailwinds

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the Treasury may deploy nearly $1 trillion in cash reserves to support larger-scale long-term treasury bond buybacks. This move is interpreted by the market as "stealth quantitative easing," meaning liquidity will be injected into financial markets, benefiting risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

Pullback Risks and Key Support

Despite multiple bullish signals, the market is clearly overbought in the short term, and a pullback is inevitable. In a bull market, corrections of 20% to 30% are normal. The key now is whether Bitcoin can hold critical support levels during a pullback and form higher lows. If it can quickly reclaim lost ground after a correction and continue making higher highs, the probability of confirming a bull market will rise significantly.

Some analysts point to multiple resistance zones above: $78,000–$82,000, $94,000–$98,000, and $111,000–$116,000. Whether the market can break through these resistances will depend on the alignment of liquidity and policy.

Global Regulation and Adoption Progress

On the regulatory front, multiple countries and regions are advancing licensing and regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrencies. Pakistan has launched a crypto business registration process, requiring firms to submit applications by September 5. In Hong Kong, Standard Chartered became the first bank to distribute a HKD stablecoin, planning multiple commercial applications including fund subscriptions and cross-border payments. These developments show that traditional financial institutions are accelerating their integration into the crypto ecosystem.

Moreover, stablecoin usage in payments continues to expand. Over the past year, crypto card spending surpassed $1 billion, with USDC and USDT accounting for over 70% of transaction volume. With emerging use cases like AI agents, stablecoin adoption is expected to accelerate further.

Summary

Overall, multiple technical indicators and on-chain data point to a bullish structure, the macro liquidity environment is turning accommodative, and institutional capital continues to flow in. However, short-term overbought conditions and overhead resistance suggest a pullback may occur. Investors should watch post-pullback support performance and whether higher highs and higher lows can form to confirm whether a true bull market has arrived.