Hawkish FOMC Minutes and Bitcoin's Key Technical Level: 200-Day Moving Average as Bull-Bear Dividing Line

Market Overview: Dollar Weakens, Bitcoin and Gold Rise in Tandem

Today's market showed a notable divergence. The dollar index fell sharply by nearly 1%, while Bitcoin surged about 8-9% within three hours, and gold climbed to around $4,500. Notably, Bitcoin and gold exhibited a rare synchronized rally, while equities did not show the same strength.

Possible drivers include: the U.S. Treasury announced it would double its bond buyback program from $2 billion to over $4 billion per month to stabilize long-term treasury bond yields. This move was interpreted by the market as a form of quasi-quantitative easing, weakening the dollar's appeal and boosting assets like Bitcoin and gold.

FOMC Meeting Minutes: Hawkish Stance Continues, Inflation Remains Focus

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes showed the Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, but three members favored a 25 basis point rate hike. The minutes emphasized that inflation remains elevated, with May PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE at 3.4%, well above the 2% target.

Key points include:

• Most members supported holding rates steady, awaiting more data to assess the inflation path.
• Some members felt financial conditions were not yet tight enough to sufficiently curb inflation, and further rate hikes might be needed.
• Staff projected inflation would ease in the second half of the year, but risks were tilted to the upside.
• The Fed frequently mentioned artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on the economy and inflation in the minutes, drawing market attention.

Market interpretation of the minutes was generally hawkish, with rate futures showing about a one-third chance of a September rate hike and a 70% probability of at least one hike by year-end.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: 200-Day Moving Average Becomes Key Resistance

Bitcoin's rally today precisely tested the 200-day moving average (around $69,000), which also coincides with the weekly Bollinger Band upper band and marks the first touch of the descending trendline from the all-time high. This area concentrates multiple technical resistances, becoming the focal point of the bull-bear battle.

From a technical perspective:

• The weekly open was near the point of control (POC) at $62,700, and today's rebound to the 200-day MA was followed by a pullback.
• If Bitcoin can effectively break and hold above $69,000, it may signal the end of the bear market and the start of a new uptrend.
• If it faces rejection here, a continued correction may follow, potentially forming a new low in October or November before a bull market resumes.

In the short term, until the 200-day MA is decisively broken, some traders prefer to remain cautious or take light short positions, while long-term investors may still consider accumulating on dips.

Gold and Bitcoin Synchronization: A Shared Test of the 200-Day Moving Average

Interestingly, gold and Bitcoin tested their respective 200-day moving averages on the same day, almost at the same time, both briefly breaking above before pulling back. Gold's 200-day MA is near $4,500, while Bitcoin's is at $69,000. This synchronization may reflect a common market response to expectations of dollar liquidity.

If gold can close above $4,500, it may resume its medium-term uptrend; similarly, if Bitcoin can close daily above $69,000, it would strengthen the bullish signal. Both are currently at a critical juncture, and short-term volatility may intensify.

White House Crypto Meeting: Lacking Substance

President Trump held a meeting at the White House with the SEC and CFTC chairs and crypto industry executives, but the discussion was mostly general statements without specific policy details. The only notable item was the SEC proposing a new rule to provide a clearer framework for crypto projects to raise funds in the U.S. Additionally, the meeting mentioned the Clarity Act, which will be voted on September 15; if passed, it would provide more lasting regulatory certainty for the crypto industry.

Overall, the meeting had no direct impact on the market, and the moves in Bitcoin and gold were driven more by macroeconomic factors and technical levels.

Summary and Outlook

The market is at a critical turning point. The Fed's hawkish stance conflicts with the Treasury's easing operations, and a weaker dollar supports Bitcoin and gold, but technical resistance remains strong. Investors should closely watch the 200-day moving average and upcoming economic data. In a high-uncertainty environment, risk control and proper asset allocation are particularly important.