Solana Approaches $98–99 Resistance Zone: Elliott Wave Structure and Key Support

Current Price Position and Resistance Zone

Solana has recently extended its upward move, in line with the relatively strong momentum seen in Bitcoin, Ethereum and the broader sector. Price is currently trading below the March and May 2026 swing highs, a resistance zone roughly between $98 and $99, which is the first battleground between bulls and bears.

On shorter timeframes, price is consolidating below the highs. Although there was volatility over the weekend, overall support remains valid and the uptrend structure has not been broken.

Structural Read from an Elliott Wave Perspective

From a wave structure standpoint, the most reasonable labeling for this leg up is an internal third wave, which may be only one component of a larger corrective rebound. Whether this structure escalates into a stronger bullish pattern depends on how the market reacts to the resistance zone above.

Two scenarios need to be distinguished:

• White scenario (corrective rebound): The advance from the June low to the July high forms only a three-wave structure, and the move from the June low to now is likewise still a three-wave sequence. If so, price could still extend higher in the form of a high B wave.
• Orange scenario (fourth wave complete): Price may have already completed the entire ABC corrective structure from the January high within a fourth wave, with the fifth wave starting in June. But this scenario remains marked with a question mark and has not yet been confirmed.

Confirming a stronger bullish scenario requires a decisive breakout above resistance or a clear five-wave advance; otherwise, the upward extension could also complete as a larger-degree wedge (diagonal), including an ending diagonal within the fifth wave.

Key Support and Observation Framework

On short timeframes, the nearest support zone sits roughly between $87 and $94, with $87.25 the level to watch most closely: as long as it holds, upside momentum is likely to continue.

It is worth stressing that $87.25 is not an invalidation point but a reference level for maintaining the upward rhythm. If price decisively breaks below it, the probability of a deeper pullback than the current wave degree rises; however, a single wick piercing the level does not change the structural read, and a quick dip followed by a swift recovery likewise does not constitute structural damage. In Saturday's sharp pullback after the spike, price held exactly at the 50% retracement level, showing that this area has real reference value for market sentiment.

If price successfully breaks through $98 to $99, the three larger-degree resistance levels that open up above are $110, $133 and $160.

Scenario Assumptions and Risk Notes

Upside momentum remains in place, but the breakout pattern is not very straightforward; price may see more consolidation before another attempt at $98 to $99, or even pull back first to complete a C wave. The framework can be summarized as follows:

1. As long as micro support holds, the upward structure remains intact;
2. A break below support or a five-wave decline would be the first signal that this local reversal attempt has failed;
3. Before resistance is broken, the corrective rebound scenario should not be ruled out.

The above is a technical analysis view based on price structure. It describes scenario assumptions and an observation framework only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.