Solana Target Achieved! What's Next?

Solana's recent price action has drawn market attention. This article provides a technical analysis of Solana's short-term and mid-term trends based on Elliott Wave theory, outlines two main market scenarios, and identifies key support and resistance levels for investors.

Short-Term Bullish / Mid-Term Bearish Scenario

The wave 2 correction that began in January 2025 may not be over yet. Price hit a low in June 2026, forming a three-wave decline that can be labeled as wave A. Price may now be unfolding a wave B rally, which could be complex. The main resistance zone for wave B lies between $110.15 and $296.3, based on standard Fibonacci retracement levels of the decline from the 2025 high to the 2026 low. However, wave B often does not adhere closely to Fibonacci levels, so this zone serves only as a preliminary reference. A wave C decline could still follow, completing the A-B-C corrective structure.

Bullish Scenario

A more optimistic count is the orange path. In this scenario, price could launch a five-wave rally from the June wave four low, targeting new all-time highs. However, a complete five-wave impulse structure has not yet emerged, so this scenario still requires further confirmation. If a five-wave rally followed by a three-wave pullback appears, it could be viewed as a "wave one, wave two" structure, setting the stage for a wave three advance.

Key Support and Resistance

On the 1-hour timeframe, the decline from the August 25 high shows a five-wave structure, possibly the first wave of a wave C decline. Price is currently in a range, with major support between $87.25 and $95.13, which was validated during Saturday's sharp drop. Initial resistance above lies between $98.5 and $111.4 (originally miswritten as 11.14, should be 111.4). Breaking this zone would open further upside toward the Fibonacci level near $110.

Conclusion

Overall, Solana's short-term momentum is bullish, but mid-term downside risk remains. As long as the $87.25 support holds, the short-term uptrend may continue; a break below this support could trigger a deeper correction. Investors should closely monitor the $87.25 support and $111.4 resistance to gauge the next direction.