Bitcoin Returns to $80K, Why Has MicroStrategy Lagged by 36%?

In May 2026, Bitcoin rebounded to $81,000, then experienced a June crash and two months of sideways trading, recently rising back to around $80,000. However, MicroStrategy (MSTR), a well-known Bitcoin holding company, has significantly underperformed: its stock only reached a high of $127 in this rebound, down 36% from the May high of $197. Over the same period, another Bitcoin treasury company's stock is 13% higher than its May high. Why has MicroStrategy lagged 36% while Bitcoin returned to $80K?

Core Reasons: High-Buy-Low-Sell and Shareholder Dilution

MicroStrategy's recent underperformance can be attributed to two main factors: high-buy-low-sell operations on Bitcoin, and massive share issuance diluting shareholder equity.

1. High-Buy-Low-Sell: From Steadfast Accumulation to Selling at the Bottom

In February 2026, Bitcoin hit a low of $60,000 in its second wave of decline, and MicroStrategy's stock fell to a low of $104. Then the market rebounded, with Bitcoin peaking at $81,000 on May 11, a gain of about 35%; MicroStrategy's stock peaked at $197, a gain of nearly 90%. At that time, the market had strong confidence in MicroStrategy because it had been continuously buying Bitcoin from February to May, accumulating about 100,000 BTC at an average cost between $70,000 and $80,000. The market believed these holdings would become future profit growth points, so MicroStrategy's gains far exceeded Bitcoin's.

However, after Bitcoin fell in June, MicroStrategy sold nearly 7,000 BTC. This move was seen by the market as a classic case of heavy buying at the top and cutting losses at the bottom. Previously, MicroStrategy had stated that it does not time Bitcoin purchases and justified selling by citing the need to pay dividends on high-yield products through share issuance and to maintain a USD cash reserve. But selling 7,000 BTC near $60,000 and issuing $5 billion in new shares essentially betrayed shareholders.

In contrast, another Bitcoin treasury company bought over 5,000 BTC at the high of $95,000 in January 2026, then suffered a market crash with its stock dropping to around $8. However, that company continued to slowly buy Bitcoin in a dollar-cost averaging manner throughout the bear market from February to August. This steadfast accumulation attitude kept market confidence high, so when Bitcoin returned to $80,000, that company's stock was able to make new highs, while MicroStrategy lost market trust by selling Bitcoin.

2. Aggressive Share Issuance at Low MNAV Dilutes Shareholders

Data clearly shows: on June 14, MicroStrategy had 384 million shares outstanding and held 845,000 BTC; by August 26, shares outstanding increased to 424 million, while Bitcoin holdings decreased to 840,000 BTC. In two months, 40 million new shares were issued, a 10.4% increase in share count, while Bitcoin holdings actually decreased by 5,000 BTC. Shareholders faced a double blow: dilution plus reduced holdings.

Currently, MicroStrategy has $5.1 billion in cash on hand. The purpose of issuing shares and selling Bitcoin may be to increase cash reserves to support the price of its convertible bond products, thereby raising funds to buy Bitcoin through those products. However, due to continuous share issuance, Bitcoin sales, and shareholder dilution, market confidence in MicroStrategy continues to decline. As long as Bitcoin remains at low levels, the lack of market confidence will make it difficult for its convertible bonds to re-anchor, reducing financing efficiency. When Bitcoin eventually rises, MicroStrategy may be left holding large amounts of cash to buy more expensive Bitcoin at higher prices.

Vicious Cycle: Lack of Confidence Hinders Financing

MicroStrategy is currently trapped in a bad cycle: issuing shares through ATM without buying Bitcoin erodes market confidence; insufficient market confidence prevents convertible bonds from quickly re-anchoring; difficulty in re-anchoring leads to low financing efficiency; poor financing prevents MicroStrategy from buying Bitcoin at low cost; and inability to buy cheap Bitcoin further damages market confidence. This cycle cannot be solved by continuing to hoard cash. What convertible bonds really need is not proof of cash, but market belief that MicroStrategy will take shareholder interests seriously and continue to increase Bitcoin holdings in a reasonable manner.

The example of the other Bitcoin treasury company shows that the market is willing to give a higher premium not because of more cash, but because the market believes that as long as it has money, it will continue to buy Bitcoin. It is understandable for MicroStrategy to keep a certain amount of USD reserves, but when $5.1 billion in cash reserves cannot make convertible bonds re-anchor, MicroStrategy really needs to rethink its current strategy.

Recommendation: Resume Dollar-Cost Averaging to Rebuild Confidence

What MicroStrategy should really do is start buying Bitcoin again through dollar-cost averaging from now on. It doesn't need to be a lot—500 BTC per week is enough. Buy a little when Bitcoin falls, buy a little when it rises, and buy a little when it trades sideways. 500 BTC per week will not affect cash safety, but it can send a clear signal to the market: MicroStrategy is steadfastly accumulating Bitcoin. As a Bitcoin treasury company, Bitcoin is its soul. Only by showing firm confidence in Bitcoin again will the market give a confidence premium, and convertible bonds will achieve the fastest and strongest re-anchoring.

(This article is based on public market data and opinions and does not constitute investment advice.)