Bitcoin Sees First True Bull Market Signal in Six Years: Technical and Macro Factors Align

Over the past week, bitcoin market sentiment has shifted notably from broadly bearish to cautiously optimistic. On the technical side, bitcoin broke above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages in one move, the first time since losing the 200-day line in October 2025. Meanwhile, potential liquidity release from the U.S. Treasury has emerged as a new macro catalyst, and some market analysts believe this could bring bitcoin its first true bull market cycle in six years.

Technicals: Key Moving Average Breakout and Bottom Pattern Confirmation

Bitcoin's daily chart shows the price has climbed back above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. Among them, the 200-day line has been recaptured for the first time since losing it in October 2025 (when the price was around $110,000), and is viewed as an important signal of a short-term trend reversal.

Technical analysis points out that a textbook "Adam and Eve" double bottom pattern is forming, currently just a few percentage points away from confirming a neckline breakout. Once broken, the pattern may open up room for further upside.

On the weekly chart, this week produced a large bullish candle with a gain of about 20%–23%, accompanied by accumulating bullish divergence momentum. Similar patterns have appeared multiple times at historical bottom areas and have echoed with support confirmations after subsequent neckline breakouts.

The monthly chart is even more positive: RSI has formed a bullish crossover in deeply oversold territory, an extremely rare low-level signal over the past several cycles. The last similar signal appeared in early 2023 during the bear-to-bull transition, when bitcoin was near $20,000 and subsequently launched a vertical rally. If the monthly MACD turns green now, it may correspond to bitcoin around $100,000, laying the foundation for a full acceleration later.

Macro Backdrop: U.S. Treasury Could Become the Next Catalyst

According to market sources, the U.S. Treasury is considering using about $1 trillion from its general account to purchase long-term government bonds. Last week, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a $4 billion buyback program. However, some analysts believe this amount is a "drop in the bucket" relative to current bond market pressures and may instead intensify concerns about the fiscal situation.

Nevertheless, if this huge cash pile is released through bond buybacks, it will increase market liquidity and push down bond yields. For risk assets like bitcoin, improved liquidity and falling yields typically create a favorable environment. Some views suggest this could be the long-awaited fundamental catalyst for bitcoin, resonating with the current technical signals.

Market Sentiment: From Wait-and-See to Chasing the Rally

Prediction market data shows bitcoin has about a 25% chance of first falling to $50,000, and a similar probability of reaching $100,000 within this year. This probability distribution has shifted over the past few months, and some analysts expect the probability of touching $100,000 could rise to 50%–75% within the next month.

Notably, while some investors still wait for a pullback to $40,000 or lower, the number holding this view has clearly declined. Market behavior suggests many sidelined funds may chase the rally after bitcoin breaks above the psychological $100,000 level, rather than positioning early in the $50,000–$60,000 range.

From a cycle perspective, although bitcoin hit an all-time high in 2025, its gains were limited and altcoins did not follow, with the move largely attributed to short-term factors such as ETF inflows and election trading rather than a full economic expansion cycle. Some analysts believe the market is now approaching the first true bull market driven by a business cycle in six years, and its duration and magnitude may far exceed the "fake bull market" of 2025.

Risks and Outlook: Pullback Potential and Key Levels

Although the overall trend has turned positive, short-term pullbacks may still occur. Analysts note that bitcoin faces resistance near $83,000 and may need several weeks of consolidation before a decisive breakout. In addition, the 200-day moving average (around $70,000) could still serve as a support reference during pullbacks.

The prevailing market view is that even if a pullback occurs, the probability of prices returning to lows below $60,000 is low. Both weekly and monthly technical signals point to greater upside, and the "maximum pain" at this stage may lie in missing the rally rather than waiting for lower prices.

Overall, technical and macro factors are forming a rare resonance, and the bitcoin market may have emerged from a year-long consolidation base, entering the early stage of a new upward cycle. Investors should watch for confirmation of key level breakouts and changes in liquidity, and keep risk management at the forefront.