SkyBridge Founder Anthony Scaramucci: Bitcoin Could Return Above $100,000

Recently, Bitcoin's price has continued to trade in a narrow range, drawing market attention. Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, said in an interview at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium that Bitcoin has been in its tightest trading range in five years for nine consecutive weeks. He attributed this to three main reasons, but from a longer-term perspective, he remains bullish and expects Bitcoin to return above $100,000.

Why Is Volatility So Low?

Scaramucci pointed out that Bitcoin's low volatility is not caused by a single factor, but by the convergence of three structural changes:

• Hashrate shifting to AI: Many Bitcoin miners have redirected computing power to artificial intelligence, disrupting the Bitcoin network's hash rate and, to some extent, suppressing sharp price swings.
• Capital flowing to AI: In addition to Bitcoin, other crypto assets have also seen capital outflows, with some funds moving into AI-related fields, further reducing overall activity in the cryptocurrency market.
• Position in the four-year cycle: If you believe in Bitcoin's four-year cycle theory, the market is currently in the late stage of a typical bear market. With roughly 18 to 19 months until the next block reward halving, prices tend to be lackluster at this stage.

Four-Year Cycle and Halving Expectations

Scaramucci believes that Bitcoin's long-term logic still revolves around supply and demand. As the next halving approaches, the supply of new coins will tighten further, which will become a key driver of price upside. He expects that after the halving cycle kicks in again, Bitcoin's price could recover to above $100,000, but it may go through a period of "bottoming out" before that.

Notably, despite being in a bear market, Bitcoin's maximum drawdown from its peak is about 55%, while in historical bear markets, declines have often reached 75% to 80%. In Scaramucci's view, the smaller drawdown could be a positive sign that there are many net buyers in the market, building strength for the next bull run.

Potential Catalysts and Quantum Computing Risk

Regarding near-term catalysts, Scaramucci admitted that apart from the supply-demand imbalance, he sees no obvious short-term drivers. The Clarity Act, which the market is watching, could provide a modest boost if passed, but he estimates its passage probability at around 50% and does not consider it a major catalyst. In the long run, however, if the bill is enacted, it would provide more access for banks to participate in crypto businesses, change how Bitcoin is held, and reduce regulatory swings caused by alternating partisan control, benefiting the industry as a whole.

Addressing concerns that quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin's security, Scaramucci said that Bitcoin core developers are capable of solving related problems, and he does not view it as a systemic risk. However, he understands the concerns of ordinary retail investors arising from insufficient research.

Crypto Firms' Banking Licenses: A Signal of Long-Term Convergence

When asked about World Liberty Financial, a company affiliated with the Trump family, obtaining a banking license, Scaramucci said the impact on the overall market is limited. He stressed that there should not be excessive restrictions on the business activities of the president's children, but it is necessary to ensure there are no major conflicts of interest.

He further analyzed that if the Clarity Act passes, traditional banks, regional banks, and community banks will all enter the crypto space, leading to convergence between cryptocurrency companies and traditional financial institutions. From an industry perspective, it is a prudent and reasonable choice for crypto companies to apply for banking licenses.

Overall, Scaramucci's core assessment is that Bitcoin lacks an explosive catalyst in the short term, but the halving-driven supply tightening and long-term changes in supply and demand could push it back above $100,000 over a longer horizon.