Bitcoin's New Bull Market Has Just Begun: Clarity Act Progress and On-Chain Signals Explained

The crypto market has recently seen a wave of positive developments, with Bitcoin prices surging and market sentiment clearly recovering. From policy to on-chain data, multiple indicators suggest a new bull market may have already begun.

Background of Bitcoin's Recent Rally

Bitcoin has strengthened steadily over the past two weeks, breaking through key resistance levels. The regulatory uncertainty that previously weighed on the market is dissipating, while sustained inflows from institutional investors are providing strong support. On-chain data shows Bitcoin has reclaimed its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025. Historical patterns indicate that the last two times Bitcoin recovered and held above the 200-day MA, a new bull cycle began.

At the same time, demand in both spot and perpetual futures markets has turned positive simultaneously for the first time since the October 2025 all-time high. Although current demand remains modest, if this trend continues for more than a month, it would largely confirm the bear market is over and a new bull market has begun.

Clarity Act Progress and Key Figures' Statements

The U.S. Senate has scheduled a vote on the Clarity for Digital Tokens Act (Clarity Act) for September 15. The bill aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and has received broad bipartisan support. According to multiple media reports, the bill is likely to pass with more than 60 votes in favor.

The CEO of a major exchange publicly stated that the bill is also beneficial to the banking industry, giving traditional financial institutions new business growth opportunities. Several large banks and financial services firms have already publicly endorsed the bill, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, BNY Mellon, Fidelity, and BlackRock. These institutions believe clear regulatory rules will help the U.S. remain competitive in the digital asset space.

Additionally, the CEO of a brokerage platform revealed that industry leaders actively communicated with senators during the summer recess, even holding conference calls at 3 a.m. to push the bill forward. The industry widely believes that the bill's passage will bring long-term benefits to the crypto sector.

Industry Reaction and Future Outlook

Market expectations for the bill's passage are already reflected in prices. A major exchange CEO predicted that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 to $400,000 within the next four years and believes there is a significant chance of breaking $100,000 by the end of this year. However, such predictions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.

On-chain data further confirms the formation of a market bottom. Bitcoin saw heavy turnover in the $58,000 to $65,000 range, and the $62,000 to $65,000 zone has become a solid cost support area. Moreover, the market recently experienced the seventh-largest liquidation event in crypto history and the largest short squeeze in Bitcoin's history, with massive leveraged short positions being force-liquidated, further driving prices upward.

From a narrative perspective, the core logic of this cycle may be "the entire financial system moving on-chain." Unlike traditional cycles, the driving forces this time are the tokenization of real-world assets, on-chain cross-border payment settlement, and deep participation by traditional financial institutions. If this trend continues, the scale of this bull market could far exceed previous ones.

Summary

Combining policy, institutional behavior, and on-chain data, Bitcoin's bottom signals are relatively clear, and a new bull market is underway. The Clarity Act vote will be a key short-term catalyst, while long-term trends depend on on-chain adoption rates and sustained institutional inflows. Investors should closely monitor the September 15 vote and rationally assess risks.